Konferenční příspěvek

Hofman R., Šmídl V., Pecha P.

The Fifth WMO International Symposium on Data Assimilation

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

Melbourne

2009

Ing. Radek Hofman (ÚTIA - Oddělení adaptivních systémů)

data assimilation, particle filter, prediction, cloud shine,

Exploitation of the data assimilation methodology in the field of radiation protection is studied. When radioactive pollutants are released into the atmosphere, a radioactive plume is passing over the terrain. In order to ensure efficiency of introduced countermeasures, it is necessary to predict spatial and temporal distribution of the aerial pollution and material already deposited on the ground. The predictions are made by the means of numerical dispersion models with many inputs. A group of the most significant input parameters affecting the dispersion process was selected using available sensitivity and uncertainty studies performed on dispersion models. Exact values of these parameters are uncertain due to the stochastic nature of atmospheric dispersion, hence the parameters are modeled as random quantities. We attempt to estimate these parameters upon measurements using particle filter. The algorithm is tested on an artificial scenario.