0395998 20240103202933.020130926235959.9 000342792200005 84897648898 33 s. cav_un_epca*03621081815-4654101 (2014)159-187Federal Reserve Board Bayesian vector autoregression fan chart inflation targeting stress tests cav_un_auth*0215562 Franta M. CZ cav_un_auth*0242028 Baruník Jozef Ekonometrie Department of Econometrics E E UTIA-B Department of Econometrics Ústav teorie informace a automatizace AV ČR, v. v. i. cav_un_auth*0274257 Horváth Roman Ekonometrie Department of Econometrics E E UTIA-B Department of Econometrics Ústav teorie informace a automatizace AV ČR, v. v. i. cav_un_auth*0072122 Šmídková K. CZ We show how fan charts generated from Bayesian vector autoregression models can be useful for assessing 1) the effect of the zero lower bound constraint on forecasting uncertainty and 2) the credibility of stress tests conducted to evaluate financial stability. To illustrate these issues, we use a data set for the Czech Republic and macroeconomic scenarios used by the Czech National Bank in stress tests of the banking sector. Our results demonstrate how different modeling approaches to the zero lower bound affect the resulting fan charts. The pros and cons of the considered methods are discussed; ignoring the zero lower bound constraint represents the worst approach. Next, using our fan charts, we propose a method for evaluating whether the assumptions employed in the bank’s stress tests regarding the macroeconomic outlook are sufficiently adverse and consistent with past cross-correlations observed in data. We find that CNB stress tests are sufficiently conservative in this respect. 2015 AH 4 4 A 4a 20231122135803.5 AH RVO:67985556 http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0224122 n.a. Article Business Finance BUSINESSFINANCE 1.158 1.452 Q1 70.638 39.205 Q2 Q1 2014 Soubory v repozitáři: barunik-0395998.pdf 84897648898 SCOPUS 000342792200005 WOS cav_un_epca*0362108 International Journal of Central Banking 1815-4654 1815-7556 Roč. 10 č. 1 2014 159 187 Federal Reserve Board