0506074 20240103222215.820190703235959.9 8 s. P cav_un_epca*0506073978-618-5036-53-9220-227AthensPropobos Publications2019KarlisDimitrisNtzoufrasIoannisDrikosSotiris random walk statistical analysis sports statistics cav_un_auth*0376599 100 Kouřim Tomáš UTIA-B Stochastická informatika Department of Stochastic Informatics SI SI Ústav teorie informace a automatizace AV ČR, v. v. i. http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2019/SI/kourim-0506074.pdf The contribution presents a model of a random walk with varying transition probabilities implicitly depending on the entire history of the walk, which is an improvement of a model with varying step sizes. The transition probabilities are altered according to the last step of the walker using a memory parameter to either reward or punish success by increasing or decreasing its probability in the next step. This walk is applied to model Grand Slam tennis matches and fitted on their entire history since 2009. The suitability of the model is thoroughly tested on a number of real datasets. cav_un_auth*0376600 MATHSPORT INTERNATIONAL 2019 CONFERENCE 20190701 20190703 Athens GR BB 10000 10100 10103 2020 1 PR RVO:67985556 http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0297358 S 2019 SCOPUS PUBMED WOS cav_un_epca*0506073 MathSport International 2019 Conference Proceedings Propobos Publications 2019 Athens 220 227 978-618-5036-53-9 340 Karlis Dimitris 340 Ntzoufras Ioannis 340 Drikos Sotiris