0523930 20240103224004.720200423235959.9 000514875700001 85079755980 10.1080/00128775.2020.1726185 24 s. P cav_un_epca*02503790012-8775583 (2020)197-220Routledge Nowcasting short-term forecasting dynamic and static principal components Bayesian VAR Factor Augmented VAR real GDP growth European OECD countries cav_un_auth*0312139 Kočenda Evžen UTIA-B Ekonometrie Department of Econometrics E E Department of Econometrics CZ Ústav teorie informace a automatizace AV ČR, v. v. i. cav_un_auth*0362922 Poghosyan K. AM http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2020/E/kocenda-0523930.pdf https://ideas.repec.org/p/fau/wpaper/wp2020_05.html cav_un_auth*0384368 GA19-15650S GA ČR CZ We analyze performance of a broad range of nowcasting and short-term forecasting models for a representative set of 6 new and 12 old European Union (EU) countries that are characterized by substantial differences in aggregate output variability. In our analysis we generate ex-post out-of-sample nowcasts and forecasts based on hard and soft indicators that come from a comparable set of identical data. We show that nowcasting works well for new EU countries because despite that variability of their GDP growth data is larger than that of the old EU economies, the economic significance of nowcasting is on average somewhat larger. WOS AH 50000 50200 50202 2021 2 RVO:67985556 http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0308325 S 3+4 Article Economics C ECONOMICS 1.223 0.133 8.6 0.0003 0.243 414 29 0.268 38.85 1 80 Q3 1.043 30 Q4 5.124 22.5 Q4 Q4 0.45 Q3 22.473 2020 85079755980 SCOPUS PUBMED 000514875700001 WOS cav_un_epca*0250379 Eastern European Economics 0012-8775 1557-9298 Roč. 58 č. 3 2020 197 220 Routledge