0558740 20230316105207.120220701235959.9 9 s. P cav_un_epca*0558134978-80-7378-460-7205-214PragueMatfyzPress2022StudenýMilanAyNihatColettiGiulianellaKleiterGernot D.ShenoyPrakash P. COVID Epidemic Models stochastic model cav_un_auth*0101206 Šmíd Martin UTIA-B Ekonometrie Department of Econometrics E E Department of Econometrics Ústav teorie informace a automatizace AV ČR, v. v. i. http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2022/E/smid-0558740.pdf We generally discuss modeling the present COVID pandemics. We argue that useful models have to be simple in the first case, yet their uncertainty has to be handled properly. In order to study circumstances of the upcoming wave of infection, we construct a simple stochastic model and present predictions it gives. We conclude that the autumn wave is most likely unavoidable and suggest concentrating to mitigation. cav_un_auth*0431432 WUPES 2022: 12th Workshop on Uncertainty Processing 20220601 CZ 20220604 Kutná Hora BB 10000 10100 10103 2023 PR RVO:67985556 http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0332320 S 2022 SCOPUS PUBMED WOS cav_un_epca*0558134 Proceedings of the 12th Workshop on Uncertainty Processing MatfyzPress 2022 Prague 205 214 978-80-7378-460-7 Studený Milan 340 Ay Nihat 340 Coletti Giulianella 340 Kleiter Gernot D. 340 Shenoy Prakash P. 340