0559305 20250218124524.720220721235959.9 85132189903 000813728300001 10.1007/s11538-022-01031-5 25 s. cav_un_epca*02563160092-824084Springer covid-19 pandemic non-pharmaceutical interventions Approximate Bayesian computation cav_un_auth*1103974 Berec Luděk BC-A ENTU - Ekologie Ecology Insect Ecology K Univ South Bohemia, Fac Sci, Ctr Math Biol, Dept Math, Branisovska 1760, Ceske Budejovice 37005, Czech Republic, Ctr Modelling Biol & Social Proc, Na Brehu 497-15, Prague 19000 9, Czech Republic 0000-0002-2419-3324 G-7253-2014 Biologické centrum AV ČR, v. v. i. cav_un_auth*0309029 Smyčka J. CZ Ctr Theoret Studies, Husova 4, Prague 11000 1, Czech Republic, cav_un_auth*0106308 Levínský René NHU-N Ctr Modelling Biol & Social Proc, Na Brehu 497-15, Prague 19000 9, Czech Republic, CERGE EI, Politickych Veznu 7, Prague 11121 1, Czech Republic Ekonomický ústav AV ČR, v. v. i. cav_un_auth*0246851 Hromádková Eva NHU-N Economics Institute CERGE EI, Politickych Veznu 7, Prague 11121 1, Czech Republic, Ekonomický ústav AV ČR, v. v. i. cav_un_auth*0364006 Šoltés Michal NHU-N Ekonomický ústav AV ČR, v. v. i. cav_un_auth*0259020 Šlerka J. CZ Ctr Modelling Biol & Social Proc, Na Brehu 497-15, Prague 19000 9, Czech Republic, Charles Univ Prague, Fac Arts, New Media Studies, Na Prikope 29, Prague 11000 1, Czech Republic cav_un_auth*0283215 Tuček V. CZ Ctr Modelling Biol & Social Proc, Na Brehu 497-15, Prague 19000 9, Czech Republic, Univ Zagreb, Dept Math, Bijenicka 30, Zagreb 10000, Croatia cav_un_auth*0091778 Trnka J. CZ Charles Univ Prague, Fac Med 3, Dept Biochem Cell & Mol Biol, Ruska 87, Prague 10000 10, Czech Republic, cav_un_auth*0101206 Šmíd Martin UTIA-B Ekonometrie Department of Econometrics E E Department of Econometrics Ctr Modelling Biol & Social Proc, Na Brehu 497-15, Prague 19000 9, Czech Republic Ústav teorie informace a automatizace AV ČR, v. v. i. cav_un_auth*0237467 Zajíček Milan UTIA-B Výpočetní Středisko Computer Centre VS VS Department of Image Processing CZ Ctr Modelling Biol & Social Proc, Na Brehu 497-15, Prague 19000 9, Czech Republic Ústav teorie informace a automatizace AV ČR, v. v. i. cav_un_auth*0402615 Diviák T. GB Ctr Modelling Biol & Social Proc, Na Brehu 497-15, Prague 19000 9, Czech Republic, Univ Manchester, Sch Social Sci, Dept Criminol, Oxford Rd, Manchester, England cav_un_auth*0100794 Neruda Roman UIVT-O Oddělení strojového učení Department of Machine Learning Department of Machine Learning Ctr Modelling Biol & Social Proc, Na Brehu 497-15, Prague 19000 9, Czech Republic Ústav informatiky AV ČR, v. v. i. cav_un_auth*0231277 Vidnerová Petra UIVT-O Oddělení strojového učení Department of Machine Learning Department of Machine Learning Ctr Modelling Biol & Social Proc, Na Brehu 497-15, Prague 19000 9, Czech Republic Ústav informatiky AV ČR, v. v. i. textový dokument https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11538-022-01031-5 EF16_013/0001740 GA MŠk CZ cav_un_auth*0407173 Running across the globe for nearly 2 years, the Covid-19 pandemic keeps demonstrating its strength. Despite a lot of understanding, uncertainty regarding the efficiency of interventions still persists. We developed an age-structured epidemic model parameterized with epidemiological and sociological data for the first Covid-19 wave in the Czech Republic and found that (1) starting the spring 2020 lockdown 4 days earlier might prevent half of the confirmed cases by the end of lockdown period, (2) personal protective measures such as face masks appear more effective than just a realized reduction in social contacts, (3) the strategy of sheltering just the elderly is not at all effective, and (4) leaving schools open is a risky strategy. Despite vaccination programs, evidence-based choice and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions remains an effective weapon against the Covid-19 pandemic. WOS FN 30000 30300 30302 2023 13 UTIA-B 10000 10100 10103 UIVT-O 10000 10200 10201 NHU-N 50000 50400 50402 4 A sml 4as 20231122150653.0 20250218124524.7 UTIA-B BB UIVT-O IN NHU-N AO RVO:60077344 RVO:67985556 RVO:67985807 RVO:67985998 https://hdl.handle.net/11104/0333831 1 cav_un_auth*0297789 Jihočeská univerzita v Českých Budějovicích, Přírodovědecká fakulta University of South Bohemia in České Budějovice CZ cav_un_auth*0433294 Ctr Modelling Biol & Social Proc, Na Brehu 497-15, Prague 19000 9, Czech Republic cav_un_auth*0433295 Ctr Theoret Studies, Husova 4, Prague 11000 1, Czech Republic cav_un_auth*0433296 CERGE EI, Politickych Veznu 7, Prague 11121 1, Czech Republic cav_un_auth*0297951 Filozofická fakulta Univerzity Karlovy FFUK CZ cav_un_auth*0391400 3. lékařská fakulta Univerzity Karlovy 3. LF UK CZ 75 3+4 Article Biology|Mathematical Computational Biology C MATHEMATICAL&COMPUTATIONALBIOLOGY|BIOLOGY 2.4 0.6 12.1 0.00473 0.773 5905 0.591 3.200 138 Q2 71.3 Q3 Q3 0.85 Q2 73.6 2022 Soubory v repozitáři: 0559305-fin.pdf, 0559305_0556756_prohlaseni.pdf BULLETIN OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY 0092-8240 2022 84 8 85132189903 SCOPUS 35726074 PUBMED 000813728300001 WOS textový dokument cav_un_epca*0256316 Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 0092-8240 1522-9602 Roč. 84 č. 8 2022 Springer