0571170 20260108152528.620230425235959.9 85150795827 000966714500001 10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100677 9 s. cav_un_epca*03781891755-436543Elsevier epidemiological model agent-based model non-pharmaceutical interventions cav_un_auth*1103974 Berec Luděk BC-A ENTU - Ekologie Ecology Insect Ecology Biologické centrum AV ČR, v. v. i. cav_un_auth*0449183 Diviák T. CZ cav_un_auth*0264564 Kuběna Aleš Antonín UTIA-B Ekonometrie Department of Econometrics E E Department of Econometrics CZ Ústav teorie informace a automatizace AV ČR, v. v. i. cav_un_auth*0106308 Levínský René NHU-N Ekonomický ústav AV ČR, v. v. i. cav_un_auth*0100794 Neruda Roman UIVT-O Oddělení umělé inteligence Department of Artificial Intelligence Department of Machine Learning K Ústav informatiky AV ČR, v. v. i. cav_un_auth*0402629 Suchopárová Gabriela UIVT-O Oddělení umělé inteligence Department of Artificial Intelligence CZ Ústav informatiky AV ČR, v. v. i. cav_un_auth*0449241 Šlerka Josef UTIA-B Ekonometrie Department of Econometrics E E CZ Ústav teorie informace a automatizace AV ČR, v. v. i. cav_un_auth*0101206 Šmíd Martin UTIA-B Ekonometrie Department of Econometrics E E Department of Econometrics Ústav teorie informace a automatizace AV ČR, v. v. i. cav_un_auth*0091778 Trnka J. CZ cav_un_auth*0283215 Tuček V. CZ cav_un_auth*0231277 Vidnerová Petra UIVT-O Oddělení umělé inteligence Department of Artificial Intelligence Department of Machine Learning Ústav informatiky AV ČR, v. v. i. cav_un_auth*0237467 Zajíček Milan UTIA-B Výpočetní Středisko Computer Centre VS VS Department of Image Processing CZ Ústav teorie informace a automatizace AV ČR, v. v. i. textový soubor https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436523000130/pdfft?md5=2fe131dd453e0ec081345eb56b4310dd&pid=1-s2.0-S1755436523000130-main.pdf TL04000282 GA TA ČR CZ cav_un_auth*0414828 EF16_019/0000734 GA MŠk CZ cav_un_auth*0449184 Background: Contact tracing is one of the most effective non-pharmaceutical interventions in the COVID-19 pandemic. This study uses a multi-agent model to investigate the impact of four types of contact tracing strategies to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Methods: In order to analyse individual contact tracing in a reasonably realistic setup, we construct an agent-based model of a small municipality with about 60.000 inhabitants (nodes) and about 2.8 million social contacts (edges) in 30 different layers. Those layers reflect demographic, geographic, sociological and other patterns of the TTWA (Travel-to-work-area) Hodonín in Czechia. Various data sources such as census, land register, transport data or data reflecting the shopping behaviour, were employed to meet this purpose. On this multi-graph structure we run a modified SEIR model of the COVID-19 dynamics. The parameters of the model are calibrated on data from the outbreak in the Czech Republic in the period March to June 2020. The simplest type of contact tracing follows just the family, the second tracing version tracks the family and all the work contacts, the third type finds all contacts with the family, work contacts and friends (leisure activities). The last one is a complete (digital) tracing capable of recalling any and all contacts. We evaluate the performance of these contact tracing strategies in four different environments. First, we consider an environment without any contact restrictions (benchmark), second with strict contact restriction (replicating the stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions employed in Czechia in the spring 2020), third environment, where the measures were substantially relaxed, and, finally an environment with weak contact restrictions and superspreader events (replicating the situation in Czechia in the summer 2020). Findings: There are four main findings in our paper. 1. In general, local closures are more effective than any type of tracing. 2. In an environment with strict contact restrictions there are only small differences among the four contact tracing strategies. 3. In an environment with relaxed contact restrictions the effectiveness of the tracing strategies differs substantially. 4. In the presence of superspreader events only complete contact tracing can stop the epidemic. WOS FN 10000 10600 10602 2024 12 UTIA-B 10000 10100 10103 UIVT-O 10000 10200 10201 NHU-N 50000 50400 50401 4 O 4o as 20241111130553.1 A sml 20260108152528.6 UTIA-B BB RVO:60077344 RVO:67985807 RVO:67985556 RVO:67985998 https://hdl.handle.net/11104/0345994 cav_un_auth*0295059 Jihočeská univerzita České Budějovice JU České Budějovice CZ S 100677 Article Infectious Diseases A INFECTIOUSDISEASES 3 0.6 4.5 0.00274 1.038 1499 56 0.927 44 3.29 702 Q1 2.800 65 Q2 60 Q2 Q2 0.74 Q2 59.5 2023 Soubory v repozitáři: prohlaseni_levinsky.pdf, 0571170-aoa.pdf 85150795827 SCOPUS 36989916 PUBMED 000966714500001 WOS textový soubor cav_un_epca*0378189 Epidemics 1755-4365 1878-0067 Roč. 43 JUN 01 2023 Elsevier