0578729 20250207140154.620231128235959.9 85178233044 001130117000001 10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104793 22 s. P cav_un_epca*02511950165-1889159Elsevier Financial uncertainty Industry network Options market Business cycle cav_un_auth*0242028 Baruník Jozef UTIA-B Ekonometrie Department of Econometrics E E Department of Econometrics CZ K Ústav teorie informace a automatizace AV ČR, v. v. i. cav_un_auth*0398135 Bevilacqua M. GB cav_un_auth*0458703 Faff R. AU http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2023/E/barunik-0578729.pdf https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188923001999?via%3Dihub GX19-28231X GA ČR CZ cav_un_auth*0385135 This paper identifies smoothly varying industry uncertainty networks from option prices that contain valuable information about business cycles, especially in terms of forecasting. Such information is stronger when the network is formed on uncertainty hubs, firms identified as the main contributors to uncertainty shocks. The stronger predictive ability of the hubs-based network is robust to a wide range of checks, the inclusion of a large set of controls, and is also confirmed out-of-sample. WOS AH 50000 50200 50202 2025 3 RVO:67985556 https://hdl.handle.net/11104/0347796 S 104793 C ECONOMICS 2.1 0.4 11.6 0.00608 1.152 5658 106 1.714 50.82 2.4 1081 Q1 2.200 113 Q2 71.9 0.66 Q2 71.9 2024 85178233044 SCOPUS PUBMED 001130117000001 WOS cav_un_epca*0251195 Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 159 1 2024 0165-1889 1879-1743 Elsevier