0644488 20260224164222.620260113235959.9 105004918183 001497577200002 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107110 15 s. P cav_un_epca*02503910264-9993150Elsevier common uncertainty Economic policy uncertainty Panel VAR cav_un_auth*0231592 Baxa Jaromír UTIA-B Ekonometrie Department of Econometrics E E Department of Econometrics CZ 50 A Ústav teorie informace a automatizace AV ČR, v. v. i. cav_un_auth*0474627 Šestořád T. CZ 50 K https://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2026/E/baxa-0644488.pdf https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999325001051?via%3Dihub GA20-14990S GA ČR cav_un_auth*0397555 We decompose the indices of economic policy uncertainty into common and country-specific components and show that only synchronized uncertainty shocks significantly affect Europe’s macroeconomy, while purely national shocks have limited impact. In particular, adverse common uncertainty shocks lead to economic downturns even if central banks aim to offset them by lowering interest rates, and this monetary easing has negligible effects on inflation — implying that common uncertainty acts more like a demand shock than a supply shock. As a result, supporting real activity does not compromise price stability. However, since central banks alone cannot fully offset these synchronized shocks, there is scope for closer policy coordination among European governments and institutions to mitigate the impact of common uncertainty. Our findings emerge from a Bayesian panel VAR analysis identified with sign and zero restrictions and are robust to different samples and identification strategies. WOS AH 50000 50200 50202 2026 2 RVO:67985556 https://hdl.handle.net/11104/0374438 cav_un_auth*0346833 Fakulta sociálních věd Univerzity Karlovy FSV UK CZ cav_un_auth*0336024 Česká národní banka S 107110 C ECONOMICS 4.8 0.9 5.4 0.01198 0.896 15660 126 1.417 56.22 5.36 5977 Q1 4.200 252 Q1 91.2 1.54 Q1 91.2 2025 105004918183 SCOPUS PUBMED 001497577200002 WOS cav_un_epca*0250391 Economic Modelling 150 1 2025 0264-9993 1873-6122 Elsevier