bibtype J - Journal Article
ARLID 0557302
utime 20230323164438.4
mtime 20220512235959.9
SCOPUS 85128573521
WOS 000830169300004
DOI 10.1016/j.eswa.2022.117021
title (primary) (eng) Multi-stage stochastic optimization of carbon risk management
specification
page_count 12 s.
media_type P
serial
ARLID cav_un_epca*0252943
ISSN 0957-4174
title Expert Systems With Applications
volume_id 201
publisher
name Elsevier
keyword Stochastic programming
keyword Emissions trading
keyword Multi-stage
keyword SDDP
keyword Dominance
author (primary)
ARLID cav_un_auth*0324365
name1 Zapletal
name2 F.
country CZ
author
ARLID cav_un_auth*0101206
name1 Šmíd
name2 Martin
institution UTIA-B
full_dept (cz) Ekonometrie
full_dept Department of Econometrics
department (cz) E
department E
full_dept Department of Econometrics
fullinstit Ústav teorie informace a automatizace AV ČR, v. v. i.
author
ARLID cav_un_auth*0363894
name1 Kozmík
name2 Václav
institution UTIA-B
full_dept (cz) Ekonometrie
full_dept Department of Econometrics
department (cz) E
department E
country CZ
fullinstit Ústav teorie informace a automatizace AV ČR, v. v. i.
source
url http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2022/E/smid-0557302.pdf
source
url https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0957417422004389?via%3Dihub
cas_special
project
project_id GA21-07494S
agency GA ČR
country CZ
ARLID cav_un_auth*0430801
abstract (eng) Emissions trading within the Emissions Trading Scheme of the European Union (EU ETS) strongly influences European industrial companies. The companies must choose their strategy of reduction the costs of emissions allowances as possible. The changing system’s conditions and volatile prices of allowances make this decision challenging. The main aim of this study is to compare different ways of risk management: banking (i.e., buying the allowances in forward) and using derivatives: futures and options. Despite several studies devoted to the relationship between the EU ETS and companies have already been published, there is still a gap in this field. Namely, the published studies have been substantially simplified so far by ignoring the risk of driving parameters. We construct a realistic large-scale stochastic optimization model, which avoids the mentioned simplifications. We use the Markov Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming algorithm (MSDDP) to find the optimal solution. We apply the model to the data of a real-life industrial company. We find that banking is the most costly way of risk reduction, while using derivatives is efficient in risk reduction. Surprisingly, out of the derivatives, it is always optimal to use futures and not to use options. These results are confirmed by a thorough sensitivity analysis. The preference of the futures over options is mainly due to the less price of futures in comparison to options reducing risk equivalently.
result_subspec WOS
RIV AH
FORD0 50000
FORD1 50200
FORD2 50204
reportyear 2023
num_of_auth 3
inst_support RVO:67985556
permalink http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0331507
confidential S
article_num 117021
mrcbC86 n.a. Article Computer Science Artificial Intelligence|Engineering Electrical Electronic|Operations Research Management Science
mrcbC91 C
mrcbT16-e COMPUTERSCIENCEARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCE|ENGINEERINGELECTRICALELECTRONIC|OPERATIONSRESEARCHMANAGEMENTSCIENCE
mrcbT16-j 1.277
mrcbT16-s 1.873
mrcbT16-D Q2
mrcbT16-E Q1
arlyear 2022
mrcbU14 85128573521 SCOPUS
mrcbU24 PUBMED
mrcbU34 000830169300004 WOS
mrcbU63 cav_un_epca*0252943 Expert Systems With Applications 0957-4174 1873-6793 Roč. 201 č. 1 2022 Elsevier