bibtype J - Journal Article
ARLID 0644488
utime 20260115103705.7
mtime 20260113235959.9
SCOPUS 105004918183
WOS 001497577200002
DOI 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107110
title (primary) (eng) Common and country-specific uncertainty shocks in europe: Why their nature matters for policy
specification
page_count 15 s.
media_type P
serial
ARLID cav_un_epca*0250391
ISSN 0264-9993
title Economic Modelling
volume_id 150
publisher
name Elsevier
keyword common uncertainty
keyword Economic policy uncertainty
keyword Panel VAR
author (primary)
ARLID cav_un_auth*0231592
name1 Baxa
name2 Jaromír
institution UTIA-B
full_dept (cz) Ekonometrie
full_dept (eng) Department of Econometrics
department (cz) E
department (eng) E
full_dept Department of Econometrics
country CZ
share 50
garant A
fullinstit Ústav teorie informace a automatizace AV ČR, v. v. i.
author
ARLID cav_un_auth*0474627
name1 Šestořád
name2 T.
country CZ
share 50
garant K
source
url https://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2026/E/baxa-0644488.pdf
cas_special
project
project_id GA20-14990S
agency GA ČR
ARLID cav_un_auth*0397555
abstract (eng) We decompose the indices of economic policy uncertainty into common and country-specific components and show that only synchronized uncertainty shocks significantly affect Europe’s macroeconomy, while purely national shocks have limited impact. In particular, adverse common uncertainty shocks lead to economic downturns even if central banks aim to offset them by lowering interest rates, and this monetary easing has negligible effects on inflation — implying that common uncertainty acts more like a demand shock than a supply shock. As a result, supporting real activity does not compromise price stability. However, since central banks alone cannot fully offset these synchronized shocks, there is scope for closer policy coordination among European governments and institutions to mitigate the impact of common uncertainty. Our findings emerge from a Bayesian panel VAR analysis identified with sign and zero restrictions and are robust to different samples and identification strategies.
result_subspec WOS
RIV AH
FORD0 50000
FORD1 50200
FORD2 50202
reportyear 2026
num_of_auth 2
inst_support RVO:67985556
permalink https://hdl.handle.net/11104/0374438
cooperation
ARLID cav_un_auth*0346833
name Fakulta sociálních věd Univerzity Karlovy
institution FSV UK
country CZ
cooperation
ARLID cav_un_auth*0336024
name Česká národní banka
confidential S
article_num 107110
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mrcbU63 cav_un_epca*0250391 Economic Modelling 150 1 2025 0264-9993 1873-6122 Elsevier